Ok.
So over here in the UK, we also have a lot of US Election buzz and I'm trying hard to follow everything that's going on.
To be honest, I don't have a clue what Obama or McCain's policies are; I can't vote so I'm not too fussed!
Thing is, in the UK we seem to think that Obama is going to walk it. And yet I keep hearing all this stuff about how it's really tight and too close too call.
I reckon the British public would be baffled if McCain was elected as President. We just see him as this dying old man who won't to anything to forcify relationships between the UK and the US.
So what I'm asking for is a bit of American opinion.
What is the actual situation out there with regards to who is going to win?
Who do you want to win and why?
And what is going to tip the balance if it's so close?
Thanks
Update:Thanks for all of these excellent responses.
I really hope Obama wins now!
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First, I do love the English, in general, and this is one reason why. You would be hard-pressed to find an average American who would know a fraction of this about a British election. So, kudos to you.
As a supporter of Barack Obama, I empathize the inability of those in England and other European countries to understand how anyone could support John McCain. I agree with your assessment of him.
At the moment, Obama has a lead; some polls show that if the election were held today, he'd have enough--just enough--electoral votes (another idiotic thing about American elections) to win. But a lot can happen in a few weeks. I am sure there will be some sort of contrived terror alert, because for some bizarre reason, many Americans believe only the Republicans can protect us from terrorists.
I have said many times in the past few months that I wish we had the British system, where you limit campaigns to a month (am I right?) and where, if you don't like the PM, you can vote to get rid of him before his term is up.
Rule, Britannia!
Obama is the best choice - it's obvious to the rest of the world. Here, though, you have a lot of racism. If Obama were white, he'd be 15 points up right now.
The thing that will see Obama into the White House is the continuing economic problems in the U.S. McCain admitted early on that he didn't know anything about the economy. People remember that even if it hasn't been talked about in awhile. They saw how he reacted to the economic crisis by saying he'd "fire" the Chairman of the SEC. Which isn't possible. Stupid, but also shows the kind of person he is. An insignificant man places demands upon others while a significant man places demands upon himself. He just wants to "make heads roll" instead of offering real solutions.
Combine his temper problems with his affinity for military matters and his desire to fulfill his destiny along side his father and grandfather who were Admirals. Scary. He's itching to play war and he wants to claim victory. He has said that he wouldn't hesitate to institute a draft.
McCain is old. His chances of dieing during his first term as Pres. are 1 in 3. That would leave us with Palin as President. She is a religious nut. She believes that she was prayed into office as Gov. She asked the librarian if she would ban books, the librarian said no, so she fired her. What's next - burning witches at the stake?! McCain clearly makes choices from the gutt and they are frequently BAD choices.
The thing that I think is hard for outsiders to understand is how Republicans keep winning. They divide us along cultural lines. They tell people that "small town values" are American values. When asked what small town values are, they can't tell you. They tell people that the Democrats are going to take away their guns and that Democrats are baby killers, etc. That's how the Republicans convince people to vote against their economic interests year after year.
Senator Obama is ahead in the polls by a seven point lead. I and other American's who are fed up with failed domestic and foreign polices, war, lies and scandles like the new economic crisis and the *Keating 5 scandle of old will vote for Obama.
We are fed up. We want to stop spending $10 Billion dollars a month on a war that cannot be won, which should not have been waged, and your country had the good sense to bow out of after the wool pulled over our eyes about weapons of mass destruction was unmistakable. We know now the war has nothing to do with democracy or terrorism. If the hidden agenda was oil, well our gas has been over $4.00/gal all over the states for the past nine months or so and the prices of basically all transported goods is also escalating. The only thing not rising is our paychecks, but unemployment is soaring. McCain voted with Bush over 95% of the time to get us into this mess.
What should tip the balance is an informed voter. Those of us who are not lemmings read and use fact checking sources to verify claims, accusations, and the records of the candidates. Some are afraid the racists of this country will figure prominently in this race. I think the backward, doublespeaking republican party and their candidates are on the way out and so is the possibility of using race and fear to dissuade people from thinking and voting for Obama who will turn this country around.
*McCain was reprimanded by a congressional investigative committee because he and 4 democratic congresmen called for support of deregulations for his friend Keating (whom he accepted Bahama's vacations from 9 times and contributed to his daddy-in-laws wealth with fradulent dealings in an Savings and Loan crisis that bankrupted scores of average citizens in the 1980's. Keating contributed to his campaigns in the thousands of dollars during three bids for congress. That kind of deregulation led to this current crisis.)
You can check for yourself:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Every day, the site is updated in light of averages of polls over the previous week. It's currently looking very good for Obama right now, but that is, after all, what elections are for.
Assuming we HAVE one this time. The Republicans, as has become usual with them now, are trying to prevent Democrats from voting, and otherwise trying to steal this election.
You wanted ONE American opinion? I suspect you'll get more than that.
It's much less close than the last two were. I'm hoping that stealing it will be beyond the reach of Republicans.
It's also looking good for a Democratic Congress, which is good, as Obama wouldn't be able to do much with a hostile Congress.
All I can tell you is what I believe with all my heart. Bush has carried this Nation far from what we the people stand for. I do believe McCain will finish the damage Bush started. I am 70 years old and I truly believe, this Election is the most important Election in the History of America. American can be Renewed or totally destroyed in the next 8 years. Bush and McCain are War Mongers, while Obama is a man of Peace for all Nations.
Bush has caused nations around the world to hate America, even Nations who were friends, with his threats of War, you better jump when I tell you. McSame said he would go to war against Iran and Russia if they don't back down to his demand, in return China made the statement, should Amercia attack Iran, China and Russia will take their stand with Iran. Other nations such as North Korea also made their stand against America.
Within the next 4 years we could find ourselves in world war three, but this time, the bombs could be falling in our land and on our people. America is not the Big Boys she thinks she is, China, Russia and North Korea also have nuclear weapons. We all should be praying for Peace before all Hell breaks out in America!
Unfortunately the race is really close. I agree, I think that if McCain won we would continue our plummet downwards. Especially since he's going to die any minute and then we'd have even scarier Palin as a President.
I want Obama to win because I tend to agree with most (not all) of his policies. I think that he seems very level-headed and would be taking the country in the right direction, both in regards to foreign policy and relationships as well as what he would do to for the American people.
This election has really stopped being so much about Obama vs. McCain and more about Obama vs. Palin, and I think that has helped Obama a lot.
While I believe that anyone is better that Bush, I really hope that the American people pull through on this and elect Obama!!
Even Karl Rove has admitted Obama will win. You see the nastiest campaigning by McCain and Sarah Palin now because they are desperate.
And, as you said, McCain is sort of old, and the effects of a President like Sarah Palin would be something like you folk struggled with in the many Disestablishment Acts. Except Sarah is philosophically aligned more with the Roundheads and the sort who put witches on trial in Salem.
Its still up in the air who wins MCcain or Obama.
Neither candidate brings alot to the table, MCcain I feel will be more of what President Bush is today and Obama brings ALOT of inexperience and the unknown since hes just been in politics at this level for 2-3 years. Obama basically brings Biden and a wife who works for charity making almost $300,000 for helping the needy..
What would tip the balance is real answers to Medical coverage and a fix that will work in the housing/financial crisis hitting us hard over here.
Thanks for asking and clarifying. Obama is currently ahead in the popular vote polls by about 6%. He also leads in electoral votes, which is what ultimately decides it. I don't have room here to describe the electoral college, but you can look it up. It's weird but we're still doing it.
I am supporting Obama because I share his vision and his tactics for achieving it. He is a top-notch diplomat and negotiator, and this can help heal our very damaged relations with the rest of the world. I have other reasons, but that's the core one.
People are calling the race very close because recent interviews with random voters indicated that some say they will vote for him because they don't want to appear racist, but in reality they will only cast their vote for a white man. This doesn't come as a surprise, but it explains why we are not taking his lead in the polls for granted. He's going to need every leading point he can get to offset the closet bigots.
Obama will probably win. But the thing is that due to the electoral process, McCain can still turn it around by focusing his energy on a few states.
The challenge that he has though is that Obama has a superior organization on the ground. Having fought through a brutal primary, Obama has a clear advantage in volunteers who can help him with voter registration drives and get out the vote efforts.
So it will be difficult for McCain to flip this thing.
The other thing he is fighting (and in some cases with lawsuits) is that there is increased interest in this campaign by african americans. Go to fivethirtyeight.com and read the piece about Georgia that was posted today for more info on this.
I want Obama to win for a variety of reasons but the main two are that I believe he has a better vision for foreign policy and McCain has shown himself to be utterly erratic.
As in every close election, turnout will determine who wins.